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NBA Fanduel: First Thoughts for 2-6-19

For tonight's seven-game NBA slate, here's what makes the most sense to me on FanDuel.

Tonight, I'm all about the single entry tourneys. The multi-entry GPPs have big payouts, but I genuinely feel that I can take down a single entry, with only 1,000 entrants, on any given night. (And I have more than once.)

The Houston/Sacramento game is tempting with a 236 projected game total, along with the Milwaukee/Washington game (230), but I'm going to pivot to the first game on the slate: Denver at Brooklyn (225, 3.5 spread).

As a pivot to highly-owned (chalky) superstars like James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo, I'll take Denver's Nikola Jokic at 10.8k. He'll be significantly less owned and has the potential to be the highest-scoring player on the slate. Earlier this year, he put up 69 FanDuel points against Brooklyn and 73 the game before that. Jokic locks down the C position on FanDuel, and you don't necessarily need him to 6x because you'll already be ahead of the field by fading Giannis and Harden. For a more conservative C play, I'd recommend Brooklyn's Jarrett Allen. He'll be extremely low-owned and will most likely 5x at 6.1x. In addition, he posted 49 FanDuel points earlier this year against Denver. I'll probably run two lineups: one with my core, one with Allen at C instead of Jokic.

In the same game, I'll take Denver's Malik Beasley at SG. With a 5.1k tag, he can easily 6x and has shown that upside multiple times over the past week. He'll be around 10% owned.

At PG, Milwaukee's Eric Bledsoe is too cheap at at 7.5k, along with Houston's Chris Paul at 7.6k. Once again, I'll pivot from Giannis with Bledsoe, and I'll pivot from Harden with Paul. Both will go low-owned (under 10%, probably). Here, you're looking for a 5x. That will do it. A 6x performance will be the icing on the cake.

Feel free to use my core and let me know how you do! And remember to pay attention to lineup news before lock. I recommend watching Awesemo's live before lock show on YouTube (7/6c).

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Last night, I decided to play the $9.99 Wed NBA Shot and finished 4,089th out of 43,860 entrants. Overall, my core plays mostly came through:

At 7.5k, Eric Bledsoe delivered a 6.8x performance at 14.3% ownership. BETTER THAN EXPECTED.

At 7.6k, Chris Paul delivered a 5.3 performance at 19.2% ownership. IDEAL.

At 5.1k, Malik Beasley delivered a 4.5x performance at 7.3%. NOT BAD, NOT GOOD.

At 10.8k, Nikola Jokic delivered a 5.6x performance at 11.3%. IDEAL.

During my first look before yesterday's slate, I nearly listed Chicago's Zach LaVine as a core play at 7.3k. He ended up posting 53.1 FanDuel points (7.3x). In general, I'm looking for at least a 5x performance. Beasley seemed liked a solid play, and he allowed me to pay up for LaVine. (Full Disclosure: my two single entry lineups didn't cash; neither had LaVine.)

As you can see in the images below, I kept my core and faded both James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo. This morning, Giannis is all over the news for dropping 43 points. On FanDuel, though, he only outscored Jokic by less than a point. Yesterday, I mentioned that Jokic could very well be the highest-scoring player on the slate, and with significantly less ownership that Giannis. Jokic was the better value play.

To recap, I essentially doubled by buy-in, though players like David Bertans, Rudy Gay and Beasley kept me from the big money. At PF, I rostered D.J. Wilson at the 3.5k minimum, knowing that I could drop his score. He delivered a 5x performance, but I'm typically looking for more with punt plays.

Before tonight's six-game slate, I'll be keeping an eye on projected ownerships, as I'd rather have my core plays at 10% or under.

 

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