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NBA Fanduel: First Thoughts for 2-5-19

Tonight, I'll be using last night's winnings to play the $7.77 NBA Shot (15,000 entrants), and I'll be using my LineStar app to target players who are projected to have 10% ownership or less.

First, I need to identify the matchup with the highest projected total for the eight-game slate: Toronto at Philadelphia (229, -2.50). That game looks appealing, but I can also expect many people to target the primary stars. Still, I'll at least want one piece.

As a game pivot, I'm going to pay special attention to the Los Angeles Clippers and Charlotte Hornets matchup (224, -3.50). Based on experience, players like Tobias Harris (LAC) and Kemba Walker (Charlotte) tend to have lower-ownership, primarily because they don't have the appeal of Kawhi Leonard (Toronto), Joel Embiid (Philadelphia) or Ben Simmons (Philadelphia).

At C, I'll only get one slot, so I want a reliable player with a high ceiling upside. At 9.3k, I like Detroit's Andre Drummond, who needs around 45 FanDuel points to 5x. I'll take that, especially with a 5.8% ownership projection. Last November, Drummond had a rough game against the New York, but I'll take the risk considering that the Knicks' newly-acquired center, DeAndre Jordan, doesn't play much defense anymore. Yes, Drummond did play last night, but only 26 minutes. He'll be fresh and ready to light it up.

At PG, I'll take Patrick Beverley (LAC) at 5.5k, and I'm going to "run it back" with Walker (Charlotte) at 10.3k. Here's why:

(1) The aforementioned game total.

(2) Walker will give me around 45 and be low-owned.

(3) In the same game, Beverley is a fantastic ceiling play, as he surpassed 39 FanDuel points three different times just a week or two ago. I'll expect 30 minutes, and Beverley won't kill my lineup. Plus, he'll be low-owned.

At SG, I'm going to grab a piece of that Toronto/Philly game. Rather than targeting Simmons, Leonard or Embiid, I'll take Jimmy Butler. In three games against Toronto this season, he's surpassed his projected total every time. At 8.6k, I can expect a floor of around 40 FanDuel points and a ceiling of about 60. I'm looking for about 50, and that seems reasonable given the projected total and game flow.

With a core of Walker, Beverley, Butler and Drummond, I still have an average of 5.4 to use on each of the remaining slots. Time to cash in! 🙂

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The good news: last night, I tripled my buy-in for a $5 single entry tournament. The bad news: I missed the cash line by less than four points in a $7 tourney. What's important, however, is that my core plays mostly balled out.

At 9.3k, Kemba Walker delivered a 6x performance at 7.1% ownership. YES.

At 5.5k, Patrick Beverley delivered a solid performance at 5.6% ownership. I'LL TAKE IT.

At 8.6k, Jimmy Butler delivered an underwhelming performance at 6.8%. MONEY TEASE.

At 9.3k, Andre Drummond nearly delivered a 6x performance at 11.3%. YES. 

Last night's slate was a perfect example of why you need to pay special attention to lineup news before lock. Memphis' Marc Gasol was ruled out, thus making Ivan Rabb a must-play at 3.6k. Since he essentially delivered a 12x performance with 42.7 FanDuel points, you pretty much needed him to get to the money. I didn't finalize my $5 single entry lineup until one minute before lock, and only settled on J.J. Redick at SF because I wanted Aaron Gordon at PF. Redick was then ruled out after lock, however I was able to drop his zero score. If Butler had reached value, I would've had a big night!

If you like my core plays, feel free to use them moving forward. I'll post my first thoughts about tonight's seven-game main slate later today.

 

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