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FanDuel NBA Core 2-9-19

After three consecutive days of cashing with my NBA FanDuel core plays, I stumbled a bit last night. But it wasn't because of a flawed approach, it was because one of my core plays didn't reach value. (FYI, I missed the cash line by less that eight points on both FanDuel and DraftKings.)

In DFS, my goal is to cash. Some days, I win big; some days, I make a couple bucks. Whether you're playing $100 or $1, my hope is that you can use my core to build a bankroll. That's what it's all about.

Today, it took me a while to find DFS clarity. The Oklahoma City/Houston game has a projected total of 237 with a spread of 2, which means that Russell Westbrook and James Harden are both viable, high ceiling plays. Also, there's tremendous value in the Washington/Chicago matchup (226 total, -2.5 spread), and I slightly prefer that game over the Thunder-Rockets, only because you can likely roster a few players that won't be highly-owned. Personally, I'll be fading Russ and Harden, though I'll keep a close eye on potential value plays from each game.

For me, I'm targeting a Milwaukee stack, primarily because Giannis Antetokounmpo won't be playing tonight. Also, the Bucks/Magic game is the last matchup on the slate, which means that several players won't be as popular. Why? Because casual DFS players like seeing their FanDuel points accumulate RIGHT AWAY, especially on a Saturday night while they're sucking down beers.

For Milwaukee, Bledsoe is the riskiest play at 8.2k. Still, I'm confident that he'll 6x, and that his ownership will drop from last night. Keep in mind, Milwaukee is on the second day of a back-to-back, so that's another reason why the main players will go under-owned.

At SG, Malcolm Brogdon is a safe play at 6.3k. Meaning, he's got a high floor; he won't wreck your lineup. At SF, Khris Middleton (an all-star) will go under-owned at 6.5k because of a questionable tag - but he will indeed play tonight.

At C, Brook Lopez is a logical play at 5.3k. He's got both a high floor and a high ceiling.

Tonight, the Bucks should ball out they always do, and I recommend "running it back" with at least one Orlando player. This is a common DFS technique used to maximize a targeted game that could potentially go into overtime. If you're getting points for one team, "run it back" with a player from the other team.

Good luck! And let me know how you to do. Feel free to use my core!

 

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UPDATE: Last night, my core consisted of a Milwaukee stack, and the ownership percentages were just too high. On top of that, not one of the players had a 6x performance. On FanDuel, I'm always looking for 5x, so Middleton and Lopez came through. However, my punt play, Washington's Jabari Parker, was 69.9 PERCENT OWNED! Sure, he delivered a 10.2x performance, but I didn't really set myself apart from the main competition.  

So, no cash. What happened? I got too excited about certain players but didn't stay true to my practical approach: a lineup full of reliable players with slight upside; players that will be relatively low-owned who don't need 45 FanDuel points or more to 5x. I'll try again on Monday.

At 8.2k, Eric Bledsoe delivered a 4.7x performance at 27.3% ownership. NEED A 5X.

At 6.3k, Malcolm Brogdon delivered a 3.4 performance at 18.8% ownership. NEED A 5X.

At 6.5k, Khris Middleton delivered a 5.1x performance at 45.7%. ON POINT.

At 5.3k, Brook Lopez delivered a 5.5x performance at 11.8%. ON POINT.

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