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FanDuel NBA Core 2-13-19

For tonight's 11-game NBA slate on FanDuel, I'm focusing on game theory. One matchup especially stands out: Washington at Toronto (232 projected total, -9.5 spread).

Though there's a blowout factor to consider, it's worth noting that Toronto's Kawhi Leonard won't be playing. As a general rule, I typically roster bigs against Washington, which makes Toronto's Marc Gasol (7.0k) and Pascal Siakam (6.8k) intriguing. For one, Gasol has been adjusting to his new team upon being traded from Memphis, and this feels like an ideal breakout spot. And if you look at Gasol's past numbers vs. Washington, he usually outperforms his projection. Still, he's indeed a risky play. For a pivot at C, I'd recommend Denver's Mason Plumlee at 6.x (safe) or Nikola Jokic at 10.9k (high ceiling).

As for Siakam, he posted 59 FanDuel points in his last game against Washington, and he's priced well considering that his floor is around 25-30. Here's where the game theory comes into play: I'm going to "run it back" with Washington's Bradley Beal at 9.7k, hoping that the game will stay close. In Beal's last game against Toronto, he posted 88 FanDuel points! Since Kawhi is one of the NBA's best defenders and won't be playing tonight, Beal is a high ceiling play.

At PG, I'm paying down for New York's Kadeem Allen at 4k. Over the past two games, he's posted 33 and 39 FanDuel points. He won't ruin my lineup with a 4x performance, and I can expect around 30 minutes unless the Knicks' coach, David Fizdale, switches up the lineup.

With a core of Allen-Beal-Siakam-Gasol, I have an average of 6.5k to spend on the remaining slots. I can pay up for stars or stay balanced.

Other players I like tonight: Milwaukee's Eric Bledsoe, Minnesota's Jeff Teague, Houston's Kenneth Faried.

Feel free to use my core, and let me know how you do! #FireWithFire

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UPDATE: Yesterday, I fought #FireWithFire and cashed across the board (see images below).

As previously mentioned, I targeted the high game total in the Washington/Toronto matchup, hoping that it would stay close. Fortunately, that approach worked out well. Here's a breakdown of my core:

At 4.0k, Kadeem Allen delivered a 6.9x performance at 13.4% ownership. BEYOND IDEAL.

At 9.7k, Bradley Beal delivered a 5.0x performance at 16.0% ownership. ON POINT.

At 6.8k, Pascal Siakam delivered a 9.4x performance at 39.4%. SURPASSED EXPECTATIONS.

At 7.0k, Marc Gasol delivered a 4.2x performance at 1.5%. ACCEPTABLE GIVEN THE LOW OWNERSHIP.

Shortly before lock, I included Minnesota's Luol Deng as a value play at 4k. He gave me an 8x performance. As for Brooklyn's DeAngelo Russell, he only had 4 FanDuel points at halftime but ended up with a 5.5x performance (thank you, triple overtime).

Everybody played well in my $4.44 lineup except Milwaukee's Eric Bledsoe. Normally, he posts 30-45 FanDuel points, and I didn't anticipate that I'd have to drop his core.

I'll take the cash, though! There's one more slate tonight before All-Star weekend kicks off tomorrow.

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